Cycling Together

3 December 2015

ECO has no doubt that parties came to Paris with the best of intentions, and are keen to make sure we stay below 2°C. The party spoiler is that we’ve been warned that we are on a more-than-3°C track. And ECO knows that even 2°C is too much. How can we increase the stakes to avoid settling for a 3°C world? ECO believes that many Parties, especially developing countries, can and are willing to go further than their current INDCs. But many will need extra support to do that.

The facilitative dialogue described in Paragraph 20 of the COP Decision Text is a great place to start influencing current INDCs before 2020.

After developed countries increase their pre-2020 ambition, wouldn’t it be so much more interesting and effective if all countries come up with improved INDCs? Developed countries would lead the way with mitigation, and support developing countries by identifying additional conditional contributions they could make with such support. This would be the embryonic beginning of a 5-yearly process that links the gears of finance cycles closely to those of mitigation reviews. The finance cycles would set targets for support in 5-year intervals, while the mitigation review cycles would start with the revision of INDCs and need to happen as soon as possible before 2020. Mere ‘preparation’ of subsequent INDCs is not enough–the current initial commitments must be revised and resubmitted to put us onto a 2°C path and keep 1.5°C in reach.

If ECO had a magic wand, it would make the same cycle apply to the identification of adaptation finance needs and set 5-yearly targets to meet them. This ‘axle of ambition’ would connect cycles of mitigation and adaptation, accelerated by finance and linked to the adequacy of mitigation ambition. This process should continue through the Article 10 post-2020 global stocktake, starting in 2023 and repeating and scaling-up every 5 years until a robust long-term goal is met. This sturdy connection allows these wheels to move fast–we’re talking Tesla on the Autobahn.

Cycling Together

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