The EU Roadmap: Planning for Success
4 December 2010
Over in snowy Brussels, the European Commission has set an agenda for 2011 in which the year 2050 looms large. During the course of next year the Commission plans to publish a Roadmap towards a low carbon economy for the EU by 2050, including milestones for the structural and technological changes needed by 2030. This feeds into a vision of an overall ‘resource-efficient’ economy, and will be followed by another Roadmap of
possible development paths for the EU energy system to 2050.
An early prelude to this work is the European Climate Foundation’s Roadmap 2050 report which was presented in a side event yesterday. This major project, conducted and backed by numerous experts and stakeholders, analyses four scenarios for achieving at least an 80% decarbonisation of the EU economy by 2050. It puts a strong focus on energy efficiency and demand reduction, and priority is given to decarbonisation of the power sector, electrification of transport and heat and an integrated European approach to grid interconnection.
The four scenarios cover renewable energy levels ranging from 40% to 100%, with the remainder addressed by nuclear and CCS (you can guess which scenario ECO prefers). All four scenarios are found to be technologically feasible, secure, affordable, and even cheaper than business as usual, assuming a modest carbon price.
But the most important finding is that none of the scenarios will be realised automatically. A great deal of policy intervention will be needed in accordance with a structured, long-term plan. If we rely solely on the price of carbon, market mechanisms and near-term emissions targets, the risk of lock-in to a high intensity carbon system is high. At the same time, the upfront investment costs for major new grid, power generation and demand management infrastructure are substantial and planning ahead is a necessity.
What the EU needs – and indeed every country – is a Low or Zero Carbon Action Plan (alternatively known as a Low Emission Development Strategy or a Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Development Strategy).
The UK’s Climate Change Act, with its legally binding national targets for 2020 and 2050, has precipitated just such a conclusion from the Independent Committee on Climate Change. By looking out to 2050, the Committee came to the sharp realisation that the country’s power sector needs to be decarbonised by 2030. Clearly the only way this can happen is by means of major policy intervention over and above what the carbon market will deliver, starting now.
There is hope that focusing on 2050 will deliver an EU-wide strategy, complete with milestones and measures. And there should be immediate recognition that a target of 20% emission reductions by 2020 is far from the least cost pathway.
It is time to accept the necessity of long-term strategies to bring us safely to 2050. That needs to be firmly embodied in an international agreement. Not only would zero carbon plans for developed countries avoid nasty surprises down the line, they will provide tangible benefits in terms of innovation, job creation and quality of life. And they would greatly improve MRV and trust in developed country actions matching intentions – something currently very hard to find.