NDC 3.0 Analysis briefs: Canada
Throughout 2025, CAN will release regular briefs evaluating how countries’ new NDCs align with our guidelines for NDC 3.0. You can access all the NDC briefs on the Transformative National Climate Action Plans’s page.
Canada’s NDC: Unambitious targets pave the way for continued reliance on a fossil fuel-based economy
| In a nutshell: How did Canada’s NDC deliver on… – Fair, economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets: Canada aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 45–50% below 2005 levels by 2035, far below its fair share of a 160% reduction, which implies at least an 80% reduction in Canada. The lack of specific sectoral breakdowns is particularly concerning given the country is off track to meet even its 2030 target. – Sectoral objectives: Oil and gas is the most polluting industry in Canada (31% of emissions in 2022), yet the NDC does not commit to halting new oil and gas exploration, lacks time-bound commitments, and only promises to phase out inefficient (i.e. not all) fossil fuel subsidies. – Fair financial support: Canada’s proposed climate finance support is insufficient to finance the international mitigation needed to bridge the gap between Canada’s fair share of global mitigation and the portion to be achieved domestically. – Inclusiveness and participation: The 2035 mitigation target was shaped through the participation of provinces and territories, Indigenous Peoples, and members of the public. However, engagement with many critical recommendations from these submissions seem absent from the NDC. – Rights-based approaches: Canada connects climate action to upholding the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms and Canadian Human Rights Act. However, the NDC does not meaningfully reference the need for land rights; corporate due diligence; health-based approaches; nor fulfilment of Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC). Download the full brief here. |
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Download file: http://CAN-I-NDC-Brief-CANADA.pdf