NDC 3.0 Analysis briefs: Brazil
Throughout 2025, CAN will release regular briefs evaluating how countries’ new NDCs align with our guidelines for NDC 3.0. You can access all the NDC briefs on the Transformative National Climate Action Plans’s page.
| In a nutshell: How did Brazil’s NDC deliver on… – Fair, economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets: Brazil aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 59%–67% below 2005 levels by 2035. In absolute terms (net emissions of 850–1,050 MtCO2e in 2035), this falls short of Observatório do Clima’s fair share calculation to limit net emissions in 2035 to 375 MtCO2e. – Sectoral objectives: Though Brazil intends to release them with its updated Climate Plan, its NDC lacks sectoral targets. Even though the NDC says Brazil “would welcome” the establishment of a calendar for phasing out fossil fuels, it does not commit to a phase-out. Its lower ambition range is also incompatible with halting and reversing deforestation by 2030. – Conditionality details and needs: Brazil notes that any ambition beyond the lower bound of its mitigation target will depend on carbon market activity through Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. – Adaptation and Loss and Damage: The NDC places a strong focus on adaptation, including by outlining national adaptation strategies, objectives, and sectoral guidelines as underpinned by the principles of climate justice, a just transition, and human rights. Loss and damage, however, is missing from this focus. – Finance: The NDC comprehensively outlines policy and financial incentives and means of implementation. However, without a robust and ambitious mitigation target, the impact of these policies and financial flows may remain limited. Download the full brief here. |
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Download file: http://CAN-I-NDC-Brief-BRAZIL.pdf