Letter to the Troika – NDCs 3.0 in line with 1.5 degree pathways

CAN is an international network of about 2000 civil society organisations in over 130 countries dedicated to driving collective and sustainable action to fight the climate crisis and to achieve social and racial justice, equity and fairness between and within nations. CAN fights for deep and continued emissions reductions globally in line with science, including as set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).    

CAN welcomes the novel formation of a Troika of Presidencies: the UAE’s Presidency of COP28, Azerbaijan’s Presidency of COP29 and Brazil’s Presidency of COP30 to deliver on Mission 1.5. We believe that the Troika is well placed to stimulate ambition and enhance implementation in the next NDC cycle and to lead a collective journey that includes delivering on the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake through NDCs 3.0 aligned with 1.5 ºC pathways.

It is our view that NDCs 3.0 must consist of comprehensive climate action plans from all countries. COP29 is a crucial milestone in this journey as it must commit adequate grants-based finance from the Global North to the Global South, under the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). COP29 should also allow Parties to exchange and learn from each other on how 1.5ºC aligned NDCs can be crafted. 

In this regard, we welcome the Troika’s July 2024 letter to Parties that sheds further clarity on the Troika vision for NDCs 3.0 and includes many of CAN’s proposals for NDCs. We would like to draw attention to some aspects we think requires your further consideration in each of the areas below: 

• Equity through Fair Shares of short- and long-term emissions pathways based on historic responsibility and present capability – we were happy to see that the letter mentions ‘climate action reflecting fairness and equity and recognizing the special needs of vulnerable countries’
• Links to grants-based public finance and capacity needs (and for developed and rich countries, how climate finance is delivered) – we were concerned that the letter mentions ‘investment frameworks a driving design feature of the next round of NDCs and to put in place policies and regulations that will further incentivize investment into climate action’. We call attention here to the need for public finance for key elements of the NDC’s aspects as purely a focus on ‘investment’ might lead to a wrong understanding of private investment as the main source of finance for NDCs;
• Continued support for and regular monitoring of progress of the agreed objectives at COP28 – we recommend that a strong reference be made  to transitioning away from fossil fuels globally by 2050, embarking on collectively tripling renewable electricity capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 based on 2022 baselines.   
• Alignment with adaptation and loss & damage needs – the letter mentions ‘a strong balance between mitigation and adaptation’; we believe that planning and needs on adaptation and loss and damage should also be an element of NDCs;
• Fostering a just transition, contributing to sustainable development and public health – the letter mentions just and equitable transitions towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development as a key area of transformation, however it does not draw linkages to NDCs and we suggest that it should.

In addition CAN would like to highlight a few additional proposals that were not covered in the Troika vision for NDCs 3.0 and requests that the Troika takes these into account:

• Driven by a rights-based approach, respecting human rights and Indigenous Peoples’ rights, in a way that is gender-responsive, child-sensitive, and disability-inclusive; 
• Free from dangerous distractions such as nuclear, CCS, large-scale afforestation or geoengineering; and 
• Designed in an inclusive and participatory process with all relevant stakeholders. 

We also salute the efforts of the Troika to make public their NDCs before or during COP29, as well as the high-level events planned ahead of COP29. However, we need stronger political signals for countries to deliver ambitious NDC’s and particularly on what 1.5ºC alignment entails. In this sense, we present the following suggestions: 

1. Communicating a clear vision on 1.5ºC aligned NDCs. It is key that the Troika communicates science-based elements for 1.5ºC aligned NDCs, broadly defined by the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), preferably by the UN General Assembly. Those are:
   • Net-zero objectives for developed countries by 2040, net-zero for developing countries by 2050 as also brought forward by the Climate Action Agenda of the UN Secretary General (UNSG). Credible net-zero objectives require the phase out of all fossil fuels by 2040 and 2050 respectively. The “net” component needs to remain for residual GHG emissions in other sectors like agriculture but not for climate pollution from the fossil fuel sector.
   • Enhanced absolute emission reduction targets for 2030 and 2035 that are at least in line with IPCC findings for 1.5ºC degrees (a collective GHG emissions reductions of -43% by 2030 and -60% by 2035 compared to 2019) with developed countries taking the lead, according to common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC).
   • Clear Milestones for the Energy Transition: indications in each NDC of how the Party plans on implementing para. 28 of the GST outcome decision, especially on:
     • phasing out fossil fuels in the power sector with no new fossil fuel plants, phasing out coal by 2030, and gas by 2030 in developed countries, moving to 100% renewables by then, and by 2040 in developing countries;
     • ending new fossil fuel production immediately, and phasing out all fossil fuel production in the Global North in the early 2030s and no later than 2050 for countries in the Global South with the highest levels of economic dependence on fossil fuels and lowest financial capacities;
     • Supporting and implementing domestically a tripling of clean renewable electricity and an annual doubling of energy intensity/energy efficiency by 2030 compared to 2022 levels, as agreed in the GST at COP29, resulting in lower total global energy demand while securing energy access for all by 2030
     • Accelerating the SDG agreements for 2030, particularly on fully overcoming energy poverty (electricity, cooking in particular) with clean renewables in the Global South. 
   • Action on Nature: Clear indications in each NDC to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030, including by setting clear definitions and standards consistent with supporting ecosystem integrity and human rights, including the right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment:
     • Align efforts with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, including by fostering stronger synergies, integration and alignment in the planning and implementation of NDCs and NBSAPs.
     • Protecting oceans, while avoiding dangerous ocean-based interventions such as marine geoengineering or deep-sea mining for minerals.
     • Scaling up just transitions from harmful industrial agriculture towards agroecological approaches and ensuring food systems transformation.
   • Information on Financial Support (key enabling condition for 1.5˚C alignment)
     • Details by developed countries and other historically more responsible and financially capable Parties on how they plan to deliver urgently required climate finance referred to in para. 67 of GST outcome, in the form of new and additional public grant-based resources and taking into account increasing needs.
     • Details by developing countries in greater granularity about their financing needs and expectations, with a breakdown into overall financing needs, international finance mobilization needs, and international public finance provision needs measured in grant-equivalent terms, with support from developed countries for such transparency efforts.

Civil Society has science-based initiatives, such as the Climate Action Tracker guidance and the Climate Equity Reference Calculator, that can provide valuable input on 1.5 alignment at country level. We would be happy to facilitate a discussion about the usefulness of these tools in monitoring the ambition levels of NDC’s and based on equity and fairness..

       2. Convening Thematic Ministerial Roundtables on GST Outcomes at COP29 

• Furthermore, we would like to suggest that the Troika organises a series of thematic ministerial roundtables at COP29 to allow ministers to exchange ideas and discuss plans to operationalize the different elements of the first GST outcome and how to translate them into actionable, comprehensive, just and ambitious NDCs.
• We hope that all these points we have highlighted are useful for your mandate. CAN  looks  forward to a fruitful collaboration with the Troika ahead of COP29 and later COP30.