ECO 9, COP30
Foundations for the Just Transition home are within reach
A powerful thunderstorm provided the soundtrack of the last open negotiating session on Just Transition. ECO witnessed with excitement the emerging agreements on initial elements of great importance: anchoring Just Transition to the Paris Agreement; social dialogue; participation of all relevant stakeholders; education systems and skills development; social protection and locally led adaptation; the integrity of all ecosystems and the protection of biodiversity.
Yet, ECO left the room worried about the usefulness of a Just Transition that is not applied to all aspects of the energy transition (TAFF, renewables including clean cooking, transition minerals) and the transition in other sectors (adaptation, food systems, etc) and we hope these elements find better sun under this Presidency. Adopting language on key aspects of means of implementation, on human rights and on Indigenous People rights is also fundamental.
Principles without implementation mechanismism are just rethorics and ECO is shocked to see some Parties still resisting the idea that the BAM (Belem Action Mechanism for a Global Just Transition) is exactly what we need to accelerate and scale up the implementation of just transition globally. ECO has been collecting creative narratives around the BAM and now wants to offer some clarity:
| MYTH (Straight from the North) | REALITY (What’s actually happening) |
| “No one is asking for the BAM.” | Media are covering it, activists are demanding it, workers need it, governments want good jobs for people. |
| “Existing initiatives are sufficient and the mechanism would duplicate existing work.” | Existing approaches are fragmented, uneven, often lack alignment with broader climate objectives or dismiss fundamental aspects, such as labour aspects (e.g. JETPs). The BAM would actually bring coordination, coherence and efficiency to Just Transition efforts. |
| “A Just Transition Mechanism is too expensive.” | Based on the running costs of the Technology Mechanism, the cost of establishing the BAM could be compared with one missile interceptor, or one Super Bowl Ad. It’s not lack of money, it’s lack of will. |
| “More time(years) are needed to put in place a mechanism.” | The needs and urgency are clear: work on Just Transition is growing, but with no steer from global climate governance. COP30 can provide the weight of international cooperation and solidarity through multilateralism under the UNFCCC umbrella |
| “You just want a fund.” | No, the proposal is not for a new fund. The mechanism can recommend funding models, facilitate access to climate finance, match countries with donors and funding opportunities, and mobilize and channel additional resources, but its primary role is coordination, guidance, support, knowledge sharing, and activation. |
One thing is clear, if Parties are true to the idea of ‘saving multilateralism’ they need to move from words to action, and turn principles into practice. It’s now time to decide whether to continue repeating the same old positions or come together to think about how we want to create a home for Just Transition, a home called BAM!
Accounting for Justice: The Unavoidable Math of Fair Shares
As NDCs from countries slowly trickled in, way past the original deadline in February this year, ECO’s worst fears were confirmed. Last year’s debacle of the decision on the New Collective Quantitative Goal on Climate Finance had evidently dealt a massive blow to the spirit and architecture of collaborative climate action envisaged in the UNFCCC framework and the Paris Agreement, which posited, even if imperfectly, a world in which all countries, both the wealthy and the rest, would do their fair shares, as they saw them, to stabilize the climate system. The verdict from the NDC submissions is entirely unsurprising, with a good number of climate plans yet to come, the world is on track to 2.6C warming, blowing past the limits set in the Paris Agreement, and representing hardly any progress since the last cycle of submissions.
Naturally, as the Brazilian Presidency of COP30 prepared to take charge, NDCs and responding with urgency to the ambition gap was high on the priority list, and included as one of the explicit elements of the Presidency consultations for the Mutirão decision and the forthcoming Belém Political Package, expected to be gaveled today. Regardless of the many conversations and dialogues on ambition and implementation, the bottom line will always revolve around what equitable collaboration on climayte action looks like. The annual Civil Society Equity Review, released last week, gives us a pretty good picture.
Despite a decade of inaction and impunity, developed countries of the Global North have failed to cut emissions and are still expanding oil and gas, while also failing to deliver promised finance. The global finance system is failing too: instead of providing public funds at the scale needed, it traps many countries in debt and dependence. While the Global South is closer to meeting its fair share, it still needs to take more effective climate action but is all too often held back by this debt and lack of funds.
We also know that, to find that finance, in addition to considering the inequities between countries of the Global North and the Global South, we must as well talk about the rich. The global rich can shield themselves from many climate impacts while pushing the costs of transition and disaster onto workers and overstretched public systems. This elite capture, particularly by fossil fuel interests, of crucial political processes is deepening injustice, fuelling political paralysis, and blocking the stronger action needed to keep us within climate limits. This paralysis extends to militarised conflicts that divert trillions from climate action. Any real finance breakthrough must break the impunity of the wealthy, and force them – as nations and as classes – to do their fair share.
As they contemplate the Mutirão Decision and the Belém Political Package, the COP30 Presidency and Parties must finally show the resolve and seriousness needed to move from mere procedural incrementalism to radical action. And that path must necessarily go through a shared understanding of Fair Shares, without which the UNFCCC framework’s cornerstone principles of equity and CBDR-RC will remain non-operational and collaborative climate action a hollow shell. The sooner Parties, especially those from the developed world, realise this, the better it is for humanity. The alternative is one that is marked by monumental and historic injustice, perpetrated on the poor and the powerless.
Roadmaps: Much needed, but where will they lead us?
ECO has noticed that ‘Roadmaps’ are trending at COP.(s) This fixation with Roadmaps is not new: remember, in 2023, we had a Mission 1.5 Roadmap; that didn’t get us any closer to 1.5 °C, and then just this year, we concluded a Baku to Belém 1.3 Trillion Roadmap.
ECO likes the idea of the Mutirão text but is concerned about the number of roadmaps when we don’t know where they will get us in terms of justice and climate action. We see at least seven roadmaps on the Mutirão Draft Text:
- a 1.5 roadmap;
- a ‘road to roadmaps’ on transitioning away fossil fuels, another on halting and reversing deforestation,
- and four roadmaps on finance from developed to developing countries (in addition to the Baku to Belém one).
ECO wonders: Roadmap or mazes ? Will those lead us somewhere or will we be even more lost with so many of them?!
For the NDC signal, ECO is happy that there will be a dedicated space for discussion of the Synthesis Reports of NDCs and Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs). The question here is the same: paroles, paroles … and then what ?
As mentioned before, the experience on roadmaps so far has not been great. But that doesn’t mean we don’t need them. On the contrary, we do! We need roadmaps that are strong, reflect justice, equity and fair shares. Roadmaps must be actionable and accountable and include tracking systems. They need to be connected to real discussions, not only a roundtable of ministers reading statements. We need roadmaps built on meaningful collaboration, clear schedules and milestones, overcoming structural barriers, identifying enabling conditions, and built on the principles of equity, CBDR-RC and just transition.
But wait – isn’t this the COP of Truth and also the COP of Implementation? And isn’t there a section in the Mutirão draft decision text that is exactly ‘from negotiation to implementation: Paris Agreement policy cycle fully in motion’?To be credible, roadmaps have to show us the way from where we are to where we need to be. Only then will we be able to have a just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels, halt and reverse deforestation by 2030, and increase public finance at the scale of the needs. This will allow us to deliver on the outcomes of the global stocktake and to claim that the Paris Agreement policy cycle is fully in motion.
A Mutirão that we can all get behind
ECO was relieved to finally see some tangible progress from the many rounds of consultations held over the past week as the COP30 Presidency unveiled the first draft text of the Mutirão Decision on Tuesday morning. While the text still has many options of processes and mandates, we would like to remind everyone that this decision is supposed to be more than mere words on paper, it needs to deliver the justice required to reconcile with the truth that we are living through times of profound injustices.
As we wait to see what the Belém Political Package, that the COP Presidency wants finalised today, entails, ECO once again reminds the Presidency and Parties of the imperatives of such a Justice Package.
✔ Follow the Science, Uphold the Goal
Any credible outcome must be rooted unequivocally in the best available science. This means a total commitment to the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, acknowledging that the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is a death sentence for vulnerable communities and ecosystems. All decisions must be measured against this fundamental, non-negotiable threshold.
✔ Deliver Real Finance, Not More Debt
The era of empty promises is over. Developed nations must finally honour their obligations. This requires:
- Tripling Adaptation Finance: A mandatory decision to triple financial support for adaptation to at least $120 billion annually by 2030. This funding must be delivered as grants, not loans. It must be predictable, accessible, and free of conditionalities that trap developing countries in further debt.
- A Binding Plan for Historical Obligations: Establishing a legally-binding action plan to hold developed countries accountable for their long-standing commitment to provide climate finance, closing the $100 billion gap and ensuring future promises are based on a common, transparent accounting system.
- Linking Finance to the Global Goal on Adaptation: The success of the new Global Goal on Adaptation is entirely dependent on new, additional, and fit-for-purpose finance. Any finance decisions at COP30 must be formally endorsed within the GGA negotiations.
✔ Close the Ambition Gap with Equity at the Core
Current national climate plans (NDCs) are catastrophically inadequate. The response must be urgent and structural:
- Annual Accountability: A permanent, high-level process, including annual ministerial dialogues and public reports, to assess the ambition gap, identify barriers, and pinpoint the international support required. This must culminate in a collective, equitable roadmap by COP32 for a just transition away from fossil fuels.
- Fair Shares, Not Empty Pledges: The message must be clear: major economies and developed countries whose climate plans are not aligned with their fair shares must urgently update them in line with 1.5°C and the principles of equity. Ambition is not about deregulating markets; it is about providing finance and technology to those who need it most.
✔ End the Fossil Fuel Era, Starting with Subsidies
The text must be strengthened to call for an immediate end to all fossil fuel subsidies, removing the dangerous qualifier “inefficient.” Developed countries must lead by publishing transparent inventories and time-bound phase-out plans, prioritising production subsidies for the fastest elimination and redirecting support to renewable energy and a just transition for workers.
✔ Ensure Fair Trade Rules for a Just Global Transition
Unilateral trade measures that penalise developing countries have no place in a just climate regime. We demand a dedicated platform to address these inequities, ensuring that trade policies are aligned with climate goals and principles of equity. This process must be integrated into the UNFCCC, informed by expert analysis, and focused on providing developing countries with the support needed for low-carbon development.
The path the world must take to address the climate crisis is clear. COP30 must deliver a breakthrough rooted in justice and science. This means wealthy nations and elites finally being held accountable for their fair share and providing the finance owed, ending their fossil fuel addiction, and enabling a global just transition. The alternative is to codify a historic injustice, abandoning the world’s most vulnerable to a crisis they did not create.
All talk, no action? COP30 can’t leave ⅓ of the global population behind
At COP30, the world must confront a simple but profound truth: every adult was once a child, and we share a common responsibility to protect all children today. With 2.4 billion children – one-third of the global population – facing escalating climate risks, the decisions now being shaped in Belém will define their ability to live safe and healthy lives, and the world that they inherit. The unique and disproportionate impacts of climate change on children are increasingly understood. From deadly impacts of heatwaves on small children, to stunting linked to drought-induced malnutrition, and massive disruption to education, children are the first to suffer. They pay the greatest toll and will live with the consequences of the decisions made at this COP.
Indeed, Parties themselves recognized this at COP28, when they mandated an expert dialogue to better understand these disproportionate impacts on children and relevant policy solutions, under the outcome of the first Global Stocktake. That was an important milestone, and the expert dialogue, held during SB60, resulted in solid recommendations. But it seems that children have since slipped their mind. ECO is here to remind Parties that 2.4 billion children on this planet need your support. The NDC synthesis report already signals that Governments are stepping up and including more targeted measures for children in their national policies and plans.
As negotiations intensify during this second week, the COP30 Presidency and all Parties have the responsibility to ensure that this COP provides a meaningful follow-up to the expert dialogue recommendations – for responses to the disproportionate impacts of climate change on children to be integrated as a primary consideration in national level policies, action and support, and across the COP and CMA process too, from work programmes to the work of constituted bodies.
We cannot talk of a Global Mutirão uniting humanity that leaves behind 1/3 of the global population. A better world for all children – including those subjected to inequality and discrimination such as Indigenous children, children of African descent, children with disabilities and girls – is a better world for all.
A Mutirão that does not include children is nothing more than empty words. Does this Presidency want to be remembered for leaving children behind?
Time to pay, big polluting corporations and billionaire owners
We know the story well: the shortfalls in climate finance to developing countries dominate negotiations and hamper progress, while wealthy nations resist recognising their obligations to provide real, grant-based funds. What you may not know so well is that there is an affordable and fair way to break this longstanding impasse.
ECO is here to tell you that now is the time to recognise the critical role levies on the fossil fuel industry, other polluting industries and the super rich can play in fast-tracking climate action and raising revenue for climate finance, including for adaptation, and loss and damage. A permanent polluter-profits-tax on oil and gas corporations could raise US$400 billion in its first year alone.
Top dog private corporations and their billionaire owners are simple creatures, really. Like a dog with a bone, they will follow the profits wherever they go. So to stop investment in fossil fuels and fast track shifting them to renewable energy you need to make it harder to make profits from polluting. And taxes and levies have the huge benefit of raising the revenue we need for climate action. It’s a win – win.
And like a dog defending its food bowl, big corporations and their billionaire owners won’t share their profits, unless governments make them. Right now corporations are paying too little tax, getting big fossil fuel subsidies and they are not paying for their climate damages. Instead communities are paying the price through huge climate disaster recovery costs and rising food and energy prices and insurance bills.
At COP30, it’s time we delivered some accountability for these rich polluters. That starts by governments establishing a work programme under the CMA to advance the implementation of the NCQG and public finance commitments. There should be a dedicated workstream to progress options for progressive environmental taxation in line with the polluter pays principle and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC).
Collaboration and coordination should also be enhanced between the UNFCCC process and the UN Framework Convention for International Tax Cooperation (UN Tax Convention). As the secretariat for the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force – a coalition of over 14 countries committed to taxing polluters for international climate finance – recognised on Saturday, national and international fossil fuel profit taxation is vital to raise money for international climate finance. The UN Tax Convention is a huge opportunity to deliver this at the global level.
The fossil fuel industry and other major polluters driving the climate crisis must be held financially accountable for harm caused. COP30 and the UN Tax Convention must take decisive action: it’s time to make polluters pay!
Building the Adaptation House From The Roof Down
Communities across the world need a sturdy Oca to shelter from the growing storm of devastating climate impacts. These traditional Indigenous houses of Brazil are large structures, typically built collectively over the course of one week. With a solid wooden frame, the walls are woven from straw and palm leaves, and like all homes everywhere, the roof goes on last.
But here at the Amazonian COP, developed countries seem determined to put the roof on the Adaptation house before the structure is in place. Finance is the foundation and frame of Adaptation. Slapping on a roof of Indicators is going to achieve little. After all, indicators are meant to measure progress, but without the finance in place, what is there to measure?
Any credible outcome on adaptation in the Mutirão text must be firmly anchored in a strong Global Goal on Adaptation decision—especially where it links to the new adaptation finance goal. And, right now, there is only one meaningful option on the table that uses mandatory language:
Tripling the Glasgow commitment to at least US$120 billion per year by 2030 from 2025 levels. This is not ambitious— this is the minimum acceptable starting point.
And crucially, that finance must be:
- non-debt inducing,
- predictable and accessible,
- Free of additional burdens or conditionalities for developing countries.
In other words, real support—not creative accounting. So, developed countries, get your building blocks, hard hats and stop cutting corners. Communities can’t live in a house that’s all roof and no walls.
PS: Do Not Step into the Footnote Trap
Some Parties have been spotted wandering around the gender negotiations looking like a lost Hansel and Gretel. Be careful, everyone: do not follow their breadcrumbs. The footnotes in the current Gender Action Plan draft, where certain Parties are trying to define what gender means to them, are not helpful clarifications. They are detours that lead us into a maze and stall our common path towards adopting a successful and ambitious GAP here at COP30. Concerningly, beyond the GAP, the footnotes are also slowly sneaking up behind the backs of other tracks.
For anyone feeling disoriented, the Women and Gender Constituency is here to help guide the way.
Most Parties understand that inserting footnotes is a dangerous precedent that harms everyone. If governments start redefining core agreed terms in footnotes – whether on finance, ambition, human rights or equity – then nothing is safe. It would particularly damage Global Majority countries, who rely on strong and consistent multilateral principles to uphold justice, responsibility and accountability.
This sudden backtracking on agreed language on gender – by the same Parties who agreed on a Lima Work Programme on Gender just last year – seems performative at best and a tactical hijack of the process and progress at worst.
Here are the real breadcrumbs everyone should follow. Footnotes are not meant to provide clarity; they are meant to make multilateralism murky.
We will not find real solutions in an asterisk. Therefore, let us get back on the main road. No distractions. No detours.
Adopt an ambitious, actionable and resourced Gender Action Plan and leave footnotes deep in the woods where they belong.
WE STAND IN SOLIDARITY WITH ALL PEOPLES SUFFERING FROM GENOCIDE, WARS, OCCUPATION, AND GOVERNMENT VIOLENCE THROUGH CLIMATE CHANGE.
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Download file: http://ECO-19-November-2025.pdf