Rich countries are breaking their 1.5°C obligation: CAN study finds no credible commitments to fossil phase-out, finance, or Just Transition in new Climate Plans. 

24 October 2025

CAN International calls for strengthened plans by COP31

Developed countries’ latest national climate plans (NDCs 3.0) expose a stark truth: those most responsible for the climate crisis are still refusing to lead its solution. A new analysis by Climate Action Network (CAN) International finds that every developed economy fails all three tests of a fair and 1.5°C-aligned pathway – ending fossil fuel production, delivering public climate finance, and ensuring a just and equitable transition. 

Reviewing developed countries’ NDCs against three tests, the review found that:

• instead of phasing out fossil fuels, most continue to subsidise or expand them; 
• instead of honouring finance commitments, they defer and dilute them. 
• references to “Just Transition” appear largely symbolic, stripped of the measures needed to protect workers, Indigenous Peoples, and communities on the frontline of change.

Among developed countries, the EU failed to submit their NDC on time, while the US submitted their NDC before withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. The EU and the US together account for over 40% of historical CO2 emissions. Nine other G20 countries did not submit their NDCs by the end of September: Argentina, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, and Turkey. Together with the EU, they account for half of current global emissions.

Given the glaring and alarming ambition gaps across developed and G20 countries, the report calls on leaders to agree to fix NDCs that are not in line with countries’ fair shares responsibilities. Parties must commit to this at the COP30 Leaders Summit. 

Key findings from CAN’s brief

• Climate finance remains under-delivered: Just two developed countries (Canada and the UK) specify climate finance volumes beyond 2025 but not beyond 2027, and none outline how they will meet their fair share obligations. No country commits to increasing international adaptation finance; in fact, only Japan and the UK mention adaptation finance at all. None of the NDCs reference contributing to the UNFCCC Fund for responding to Loss and Damage.
• No fossil fuel phase-out: Despite the clear mandate from the UAE COP28 decision, every fossil-fuel-producing developed country omits a timeline to end coal, oil, or gas production. Brazil and Russia, the only two other G20 countries that have submitted their NDCs, do not commit to phase out fossil fuels. None of the countries that currently provide fossil fuel subsidies have committed to phasing them out completely.  Every country plans or is considering using carbon offsets to achieve their targets and/or unproven and risky technologies such as carbon capture, utilisation, and storage, shifting the focus to reducing emissions from fossil fuel production rather than phasing out production itself..
• Just transition and adaptation measures sidelined: Though references to a just transition are present across the majority of analysed NDCs, the phrase is often mentioned only once and is not accompanied by implementation measures, the need to address inequalities, or essential concepts such as social protection, social dialogue, or decent work. For developed countries, just transition measures are too narrow, mainly focusing on skills training and green jobs. While several NDCs note consultations with Indigenous Peoples, none explicitly commit to upholding Free, Prior and Informed Consent or implementing the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Only two countries analysed mention Loss and Damage in their NDCs (Canada and Brazil), and each only once. 

What CAN is calling for at COP30:

At the COP30 Leaders Summit, Heads of State from rich countries must publicly commit to submitting strengthened NDCs before COP31, in line with their fair shares and reflecting their legal obligations, including those affirmed by the recent climate action ruling by the International Court of Justice. 

These revised NDCs must implement the guidance from the first Global Stocktake in line with equity and the fair shares of each country:

• Set whole-of-economy, time-bound fossil fuel phase-out plans in line with a 1.5°C pathway and by 2040 at the latest for developed countries;
• Outline contributions to the global goals on renewable energy and energy efficiency, and measures to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030;
• Embed just transition and resilience-building measures that uphold human rights and enable sustainable development within planetary boundaries, while addressing inequalities both within and between countries.

In addition, developed countries should commit to providing new, additional and grant-based finance for mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, and just transition measures, with specific details on how they plan to align with their fair shares.

Tasneem Essop, Executive Director of Climate Action Network (CAN) International, said: “This round of NDCs is an indictment, not a plan. The richest countries on Earth – those who built their wealth on fossil fuels – are still refusing to take responsibility for the damage they’ve caused. They know exactly what justice requires: a time-bound fossil fuel phase-out, predictable grant-based finance, and real Just Transition measures grounded in rights and equity. Instead, they deliver delay tactics dressed up as ambition. Without credible timelines, without money on the table, and without protection for workers and communities, these NDCs are a betrayal of 1.5°C – and of the people already living with the impacts of climate disaster.”

Jacobo Ocharan, Head of Political Strategies at Climate Action Network International, said, “NDCs that dodge production phase-out for fossil fuels, while leaning on offsets and risky emissions reduction technologies, are a recipe for overshoot and global climate injustice. We expect developed countries to lead with concrete end-dates for coal, oil, and gas—and to fund transitions with public, grant-based finance rather than debt and creative accounting.”

David Knecht, Climate expert at Fastenaktion Switzerland, added, “1.5°C-aligned NDCs are not just a technical issue about emissions reductions. Behind every weak target and climate plan are real lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems being lost to floods, droughts, and fires. Communities all over the world—especially communities in remote areas, Indigenous Peoples, women and workers—are already suffering from delayed action. Climate plans must be centered around people and nature, not preserving the profits of the polluters that caused this crisis.”

ENDS

Notes to editors

• Full brief
• Our analysis of developed countries is based on the countries classified as Annex II under the UNFCCC, specifically those that have released an NDC by 1 October 2025. Of that list, only the EU’s NDC was missing, while the US submission was not analysed because it was submitted prior to the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
  

Media contacts

• Shreeshan Venkatesh (svenkatesh@climatenetwork.org)