IPCC and Enhancing NDCs

9 September 2018

With two months between the adoption of the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5°C in Korea and the COP in Poland, ECO has a couple of suggestions for Parties on how to best use this time, and beyond, to understand the implications and consequences of the report for the their domestic and international decision making.

ECO believes that the important results of the Special Report, published by the most authoritative scientific global body will inform Parties about cost- effective and sustainable options for necessary, possible, and enhanced decarbonisation actions to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Based on that new information, we expect that UNFCCC Parties will review and strengthen domestic and international climate policies to “avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

One key result from the report is expected to show the necessity for substantially enhancing 2030 ambition to comply with the 1.5°C limit. Until now, third party analysis suggests that only a very few developing countries have provided more or less Paris-compliant NDCs. However, the sum of all current NDCs will lead to an increase of global temperature in 3°C from preindustrial levels..

There are a couple of things governments need to do either in sequence or in parallel to support the crucial IPCC results after the meeting in Korea, if they want to maintain the spirit of the Paris Agreement.

First, governments should provide ample room for the IPCC to present its findings both in the Polish Pre-COP and the COP. The crucial findings of the report shall be part of the Talanoa Dialogue conclusions and guide the Paris rulebook decisions.

Second, governments must openly commit in Poland to review, improve and strengthen their NDCs to be in line with a 1.5°C trajectory. This applies in particular to high GHG emitters like Russia, all OECD countries, but also some emerging economies like China, Brazil and others from OPEC like Saudi Arabia. That also includes a strong renewed commitment by all wealthier nations to support poorer countries for climate mitigation and adaptation.

Third, governments and non-state actors should invite the IPCC for national parliamentary and sectoral debates in the two years to come. Although 99% of Parties accept the overall climate science, there is still a plethora of ignorance €“ if not rejection – against adequate climate policy implementation, the urgency to act rapidly and reduce fossil fuel use significantly by 2030.

Finally, countries should embark on domestic participatory debates with all stakeholders to agree on strengthened sectoral and overall targets for 2030 as well as long-term 2050 objectives for full economic decarbonisation domestically. These debates must take place in the light of new science, the globally escalating climate impacts, the continuously shrinking carbon budget for 1.5°C and in the context of the rapid emergence of cost-effective zero-carbon solutions including energy efficiency, renewables, sustainable land use, lifestyle changes, and so on. Last but not least, Parties should announce these results by 2020 at the latest.