Food for Thought: Some Reflections on Predictability

6 May 2018

On the first day of week 2, ECO would like to help answer a crucial question: what actually makes climate finance predictable? Well, ECO definitely thinks that part of the answer is for countries to provide the relevant information to show how they intend to scale up climate finance. But predictability is also about creating a process that will help developing countries make the best use of this information and plan their climate actions accordingly.

As the second week of negotiations begins, ECO encourages negotiators and the co-chairs to focus on the things all Parties agree on. It seems, based on discussions on the SBI and on the APA, that all Parties agree on one thing: Developed countries should prepare robust and complete biennial submissions on the strategies and approaches. ECO encourages all developed countries to submit them as early as possible. However, countries still need to agree on how this information will be used and communicated in a way that builds trust among Parties.


ECO would like to propose some preliminary suggestions:


  1. Parties could explore how the information related to predictability can inform important moments related to finance, such as the High Level Ministerials or the long term finance workshops.
  2. Parties could mandate the Standing Committee on Finance to explore how information related to Article 9.5 can feed into the data used in preparation of the Biennial Assessments.
  3. Parties are requested to submit their Biennial Reports to the Secretariat every two years under decision 2/CP.17. It could be ideal to link this process to Article 9.5 of the Paris Agreement.
  4. Parties could request the APA co-chairs to explore how Article 9.5 of the Paris Agreement can be linked to the Global Stocktake (GST). The GST is a process that can benefit from Article 9.5, specifically on predictability of finance, as it is the place where we assess the collective progress of the Paris Agreement. Information on predictability would ideally cover the expected levels of provisions and mobilisations of climate finance from different sources, programmes, and priorities €” considering a balance between mitigation and adaptation.


Progress by COP24 would mean ensuring 9.5 is fully operational, and for that we need the full cooperation of all countries that wish to enhance the ambition of the Paris Agreement.

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