At the ADP session last night on the chairs’ (now Parties’) text there was at least one thing in common: nobody likes it very much.
ECO is with you on that, but at least there is a text. That’s an important milestone in a long journey. We’ll heed the Chairs’ advice and not provide per paragraph comments but provide some initial impressions.
On Workstream 2, an ‘action agenda’ is sorely needed, but cannot be in name only. We’ve seen the laundry list of options before, but what is needed in 2014 is tangible action, and that starts with a strong, clear workplan for 2014 with precise deliverables.
And the place to start is that all developed countries must increase their targets by June 2014 at the latest – and signal their intention to do so here in Warsaw, rather than indulge in the usual delays. And we need to see further responses from developing countries, particularly those that have not yet announced pledges.
More specificity is also needed on how the ‘technical development of opportunities’ is going to be organized, with a clear focus on renewable energy, energy efficiency and links to a political process to ensure delivery.
For Workstream 1, a deadline is needed for tabling targets in 2014 with sufficient information for analysis in an equity/adequacy review. We happen to think the Ban Ki-moon summit is an excellent moment for that.
ECO was amazed that with all the discussions here and in Bonn, equity did not yield more than a passing reference in one paragraph. Equity is key to the 2015 agreement and Parties must leave Warsaw with a clear understanding of how the ex ante review will be conducted. This includes the development of a technical paper, in advance of the June ADP session, on the Convention’s core equity principles. This report would identify a small list of core equity indicators (adequacy, historical responsibility, capability, development need, and adaptation need, inter alia) which, taken together in a meaningful way, can operationalize the Convention’s core equity principles.
In parallel, there should be submissions from Parties and Observers on the Convention’s equity principles, and on the quantifiable equity indicators that can most robustly operationalize these principles, helping to build trust and momentum while driving increased ambition on all fronts.
The goal is a list of equity indicators that the Parties can use in both the preparation of their post-2020 offers and in the later review of these offers. Thus there is a need for this work to be completed no later than June in order to respect a 2014 deadline.
It is a tantalizing thought that the indicative elements annex could be the 'first page' of the 2015 agreement. While there are some kinks to work out and omissions to rectify (like a reference to compliance, as LDCs and others pointed out), the most important things is that Parties leave Warsaw with a clear sense of the contours of the 2015 agreement and the process forward next year in order to produce a completed draft in Lima.
Parties have serious work ahead this week to negotiate a meaningful ADP outcome from this meeting. The key to making that happen – could this be any surprise given that we have been saying it since Doha -- is finance, finance, finance! A few sentences in the ADP text is just not enough.
There must be a global finance roadmap with agreed interim milestones for how public finance will be scaled up before 2020, including a complementary agreement to clarify how finance will progress at a national level.
Full operationalization of the GCF is also required, including an explicit confirmation by the COP that a first round of pledges to the GCF is expected no later than the Ban Ki-moon summit.
The Co-Chairs have provided at least a starter course with the initial draft of the ADP. Now we need to progress to the mains and produce a meaningful outcome.